According to @KobeissiLetter on X on Sep 17, 2025, 2025 is the third year since 1996 that Fed rate cuts began with the S&P 500 at or near record highs, with the prior instances in 2019 and 2024. According to @KobeissiLetter, when the Fed cuts rates within 2% of all-time highs, the S&P 500 has delivered an average +14% return over the following 12 months. According to @KobeissiLetter citing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference remarks, Powell said he is focused on containing inflation and unemployment rather than the stock market. According to IMF research published in 2022, crypto assets including BTC and ETH have shown increased correlation with U.S. equities, implying that equity-positive policy pivots can transmit to crypto risk sentiment. According to @KobeissiLetter, asset owners are positioned for what comes next, aligning positioning with the historical rate-cut playbook outlined in their analysis.

According to @KobeissiLetter, in each of the last 20 instances when the Fed cut rates with the S&P 500 at record highs, the index finished higher 12 months later, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research. The average 12-month S&P 500 return across those cases was 13.9 percent, source: Carson Research via @KobeissiLetter. However, in 11 of the last 22 similar episodes, stocks were lower one month after the cut, highlighting typical near-term volatility, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research. The author states that near-term volatility tends to create long-term buying opportunities, which traders can use to plan staggered entries and manage risk, source: @KobeissiLetter on X. For crypto participants, this equity pattern in a key risk proxy can inform BTC and ETH positioning around a rate-cut window, especially if a one-month dip precedes a 12-month drift higher, source: @KobeissiLetter on X citing Carson Research.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates on Wednesday for the first time in 2025, attributing the move to a weak labor market, and notes this would be only the third year since 1996 that cuts occur while the S&P 500 is at record highs; the post introduces a thread on what happens next for markets. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Sep 13, 2025.

According to @GracyBitget, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $124,000, with its market capitalization surpassing Google and Amazon to become the fifth-largest asset globally (source: @GracyBitget). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also been closing at record highs for multiple sessions, signaling a broad-based risk-on rally across markets (source: @GracyBitget). The move is attributed to rising expectations of interest rate cuts, which historically support liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC and high-beta crypto sectors from a trading perspective (source: @GracyBitget). Traders may favor momentum-continuation setups in BTC and monitor equity-crypto correlation strength as long as rate-cut expectations remain elevated, aligning positioning with the source’s risk-on backdrop (source: @GracyBitget).